Scenario planning is an approach designed to help managers and executives, across all types of organisations, to engage with uncertainty and contextual driven change. Managing through uncertainty is increasingly seen as a critical strategic leadership capability. The ability to make sense of the changing context, to avoid premature decisions, and to identify the hidden, non-obvious, and counter-intuitive signals of contextual are the basis of ensuring the sustainability and success of an organisation.
Scenario planning has its roots in the work of Herman Kahn at the Hudson Institute, where Kahn coined the phrase “Thinking about the Unthinkable”, as he challenged military planners and policy makers primarily about nuclear war and how to avoid it. Scenario planning was subsequently about in business, with a wide range of organisations, including Shell, British Airways, GE, Nokia, adopting it as part of their strategic planning process.
The scenario planning process has evolved and developed over time for use in organisations who do not have the resources or time of such large multi-nationals. Strategic conversations and organisational narratives, shaped by the scenario planning process, are now widely accepted as providing time and space to share and challenge assumptions underpinning strategic decisions. This is known as “the gentle art of re-perceiving” where the basis of organising is re-defined to ensure sustainability and success in the future.
This five-day masterclass will provide participants with hands-on application of the scenario planning process. The five-day scenario planning process is tried and tested in a wide range of organisations. A ‘client’ organisation will be nominated from the participants and will be used throughout the five days, culminating with a presentation setting out proposals for the future. The hands-on application will help all participants to experience the process and build understanding and confidence to apply it subsequently in any organisation.
About the facilitators
Professor George Burt
Professor George Burt is an internationally renowned strategy professor and a global scenario planning expert. George was appointed Professor of Strategy at the University of Stirling Management School in 2013 after spending 22 years at University of Strathclyde Business School. Preceding his career in academia, George trained, qualified, and worked as a chartered accountant with Coopers & Lybrand (PwC) in Glasgow, West Africa and London.
Throughout the last 30 years George has focused on developing an international reputation as one of the leading academic authorities on organisational learning and strategic foresight with scenario planning. George’s research is derived from working closely with management teams who wish to collectively understand change in their external environment. Using the scenario planning process, George facilitates these management teams as they engage in exploring the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity that characterises their changing world.
George has worked with corporate organisations: PayPal, Shell Global Solutions, PETRONAS, ProRail NV (Holland), Mitsui Babcock/DoosanBabcock, Thales Optronics Limited, Lloyds Registry Quality Assurance, and the Babcock International Group. George has also worked with public and not-for-profit organisations, including: World Bank, Scottish Government, Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), Confederation of Forestry Industries (CONFOR) Scotland, City of Glasgow Council, Stirling Council, Perth & Kinross Council, Dumfries & Galloway Council, Scotland Excel, and the Church of Scotland.
George is a member of the UK Government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Futures Advisory group, and of the Scottish Government’s Scottish Futures Group.
George has published extensively in a wide range of academic journals including: Business History, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, British Journal of Management, Management Learning, Journal of Operational Research, Advances in Developing Human Resources, International Studies of Management and Organisations, Journal of General Management, Journal of Strategic Change, and Futures. George is co-author of the best-selling book on scenario planning: Kees van der Heijden, Ron Bradfield, George Burt, George Cairns and George Wright, The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios, 2002, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, West Sussex. George is currently completing a new book – Theory and Practice of Scenario Planning: From Order to Disorder.
