A landmark national trial has revealed a surprising truth — not all students at risk of dropping out of university respond the same way to support, so universities need to stop treating them like they do.
The study, led by Curtin University and supported by the Australian Centre for Student Equity and Success (ACSES), is the first in a national series of real-world trials testing what actually works to close equity gaps in higher education.
The trial found that while personalised early intervention helped some students make better choices, such as withdrawing early to avoid unnecessary fees and stress, it had little impact on those who were most disengaged. In short: the same support didn’t work for everyone.
ACSES Executive Director Professor Shamit Saggar said this is a wake-up call for the sector.
“We can’t just rely on business-as-usual programs and expect equitable outcomes. Our Trials Registry is designed to generate the evidence universities need to design smarter, more targeted strategies,” Professor Saggar said.
The report, “The impact of academically at-risk student management practices on first year students’ engagement and success”, is now available through the ACSES Trials Registry, Australia’s first national platform dedicated to showcasing rigorous, evidence-based equity trials.
Led by Curtin’s Manager of Transition and First Year Experience, Ella Ewart, the trial used a randomised controlled design to test whether tailored support, such as proactive contact from staff and flexible advice, could improve academic outcomes for first-year students identified as at risk of failing or withdrawing.
The results were nuanced. Students in the medium-risk group (those still somewhat engaged) were more likely to withdraw after receiving support, suggesting they were empowered to make better-informed decisions. However, students in the high-risk group (those who had almost entirely disengaged) did not benefit from the intervention.
“We often assume that early support naturally leads to better outcomes for everyone, but this trial shows it’s not that simple,” Ms Ewart said.
“Some students may need different types of intervention, or even the space to step back. The real challenge is recognising the diversity of student needs and responding with flexibility and care.”
The findings challenge traditional “one-size-fits-all” approaches, especially for students navigating complex barriers such as being the first in their family to attend university, coming from regional or remote areas, or returning to study later in life.
Crucially, the study also confirmed that a student’s early engagement, such as how often they log into Learning Management System, is a strong predictor of future academic success in that course. That means universities have tools to identify at-risk students earlier and more accurately than before, but they’ll need smarter, more personalised responses to intervene effectively.
The role of the ACSES Trials Registry
Published through the ACSES Trials Registry, this report is the first in a growing collection of real-world trials being conducted at universities across the country. Each one is designed to generate the kind of robust, actionable evidence Australia needs to close its equity gaps in higher education.
Launched earlier this year, the Registry is the first of its kind in Australia. It offers open access to trial findings, evaluation methods, and soon, detailed protocols—helping universities replicate and refine effective approaches.
“The Trials Registry is a turning point for equity research in Australia,” ACSES Trials Lead Dr Patricia Vermillion Peirce said.
“As more trials are completed and shared, we’re building the evidence base our sector needs to deliver fairer outcomes for all students.”
Visit the ACSES Trials Registry to explore the report and stay informed about upcoming trial releases.
